At 11 AM EDT Hurricane Earl's track is mostly unchanged from yesterday evening. The storm has intensified slightly and is now a strong cat 4 
with winds in excess of 140 mph and higher gusts. Conditions along the US east coast will deteriorate as Earl now moves near or over the outer banks later tonight, bringing hurricane and tropical force winds and 3 to 5 foot storm surge to a wide region:
Earl's size and track will produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend, and there is a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds along the Outer Banks. NHC puts out a very useful wind probability forecast. The highlights are that Cape Hatteras, NC has a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds and a 91% chance of tropical-storm (TS) force winds. A wide swath of 30+% probabilities covers the East Coast from Virginia to New England. Cities with a greater than 40% chance of TS winds include Norfolk, Ocean City, Providence, Boston, and Nantucket. Halifax, Nova Scotia in Canada has a 62% chance of TS force winds.
A hurricane and tropical storm warning has been issued by the NHC. A Special Alert has been posted at North Carolina DOT. More info on evacuation and storm preparation can be found at FEMA and GetReady.gov.
See also discussion in MillWX's diary.
